Hot and dry weather worsens already low Brazilian orange crop
On September 10, Fundecitrus released an updated forecast for the 2024/25 Brazilian crop, revising production for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt down by 7.1% from the May forecast to 215.78 million boxes. This represents a 29.8% decline from last season’s 307.22 million boxes. The smaller crop is due to smaller fruit sizes and increased fruit drops, worsened by hot, dry conditions. Between May and August 2024, rainfall in the citrus belt totaled just 64 millimeters, 54% below the historical average.
The heat accelerated orange ripening for much of the orange crop in the first and second blooms. To reduce losses from greening disease, farmers also began harvesting earlier. A market source told Expana that during a crop tour in Brazil, they had “not seen a single field without trees affected by greening disease.” By mid-August, about 45% of the crop had already been harvested, compared to 30% in previous years, according to Fundecitrus.
Brazilian orange juice availability has improved with the orange harvest ongoing. Processors are currently running fruit, and supply and demand were balanced through September, though prices remain historically high. The Expana Benchmark Price (EBP) for Brazilian orange juice delivered to the EU is $7,000/mt, up 55% year-over-year. Market sources have expressed concerns that demand is likely to exceed supply as F2024/25 season progresses, potentially leading to orange juice shortages before the next season begins. Supermarkets are expected to raise prices as older, cheaper contracts with large European retailers expire, according to a market player.
NEPG revises 2024 potato hectarage and expects y-o-y production growth
The NEPG (North-western European Potato Growers) forecasts regional potato production in 2024/25 MY will surpass the 22.7 million tonnes output from 2023/24, due to increased planted hectarage. The revised NEPG forecast for potato planted area in the EU-4 (Netherlands, France, Germany and Belgium) in 2024 is 7% higher year-on-year (y-o-y).
The Expana Benchmark Price (EBP) for Dutch processing potatoes remains steady month-on-month (m-o-m) at €150/mt, while the EBP for Belgian Fontane potatoes holds at €125/mt. Market players describe the market as ‘stable’, with both buyers and growers awaiting a clearer picture of the 2024 harvest.
The NEPG reported that farmers faced numerous challenges during the 2024 season. A shortage of seeds drove up prices, and many farmers had to rely on cut seed. Persistent and heavy rain during planting and summer meant that plantings were spread beyond 10 weeks, particularly in Belgium and the southern Netherlands, although France and Germany were less affected.
Most plantings took place in poor soil conditions, with rainfall before, during, and after planting in 2024 causing one of the worst late blight pressures seen in recent years. New or evolving strains of blight required farmers to mix different active ingredients for each treatment, increasing both spray costs and the number of treatments, especially for late-planted fields.
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