Pangasius imports surpass tilapia: a mid-year market review
As of June 2024, U.S. import data reveals a significant trend: pangasius imports have surpassed tilapia in frozen fillet volumes for the first half of the year. Historically, tilapia has consistently outpaced pangasius in this category, but this shift has become increasingly common, with 2021 and 2022 also showing higher pangasius volumes during the same period.
This year, tilapia supply constraints have been exacerbated by a shortage of raw materials, largely due to unusual weather events that have impacted production. Major tilapia-producing regions in China, such as Hainan and Guangdong, faced extreme heat, heavy rainfall in April, and low seeding, all contributing to reduced availability.
In addition to these supply challenges, steady demand and elevated freight rates have applied upward pressure on the market. Raw material prices have continued to rise, and plants are now taking orders for the fourth quarter, with reports of orders being placed well in advance due to longer lead times and delays experienced earlier in the year. The market is currently showing a firm tone, particularly for larger fillets, which are most affected by supply constraints.
While tilapia prices have gradually increased, pangasius prices have remained relatively stable. It is noteworthy that while wholesale prices are trending toward the higher end of the quoted range, the impact of increased freight rates has not yet fully translated into higher prices. Currently, a 5–7-ounce standard moisture pangasius fillet from Vietnam is averaging $1.95 per pound, with the price gap between the two species standing at $1.18 per pound.
For Pangasius, the market remains steady, with discounts on older, less expensive inventories largely worked through. With reports of higher replacement costs, fluctuating freight rates, and demand ranging from fair to moderate, the stage is set for potential price increases into the fall if these market pressures persist.
China’s meat imports rebound in July 2024 but face long-term challenges
China’s meat imports, including variety meats, saw a 4.8% monthly increase in July 2024, reaching 539,913 metric tonnes (mt), according to preliminary customs statistics from the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China. This marked the first rise after three months of decline. Earlier in June, imports had dropped to a 12-month low of 514,957 mt.
Despite this short-term uptick, the yearly figures highlight ongoing challenges. Imports fell by 20.5% year-on-year, or 139,087 mt, continuing a six-month streak of declines since the start of the year. The economic downturn in China has dampened consumer confidence and reduced meat consumption as budgets tighten. Year to date, imports were down 1.9% or 10,545 mt to 3.85 million mt.
In the beef sector, demand-supply mismatches and a struggling domestic dairy sector have burdened the market. This trend was evident in June 2024, when beef imports plummeted to a 13-month low of 208,718 mt, reflecting a 10.98% decrease month-on-month. The sweltering summer has also shifted beef consumption towards poultry and seafood.
Key beef trade partners for China include Brazil, Argentina, Australia, Uruguay, New Zealand, and the United States.
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