Overview
In the latest olive oil market trends, European extra virgin olive oil prices are displaying unusual divergence. While Spain and Greece have witnessed a sharp month-on-month price drop—around 13%—leading to their lowest levels since October 2022, Italy has bucked the trend. Italian extra virgin olive oil prices rose over 3% week-on-week for standard varieties and more than 6% for organic offerings, signaling a surprising split in the previously synchronized European olive oil markets.
Market Drivers and Price Divergence
The declines in Spanish and Greek olive oil prices stem from expectations of substantial production increases. Market participants anticipate robust harvests and normalizing conditions that counter earlier supply concerns. By contrast, Italy faces critical stock shortages, forcing producers to pay premium prices to secure necessary volumes. This results in Italian olive oil costing approximately €9.20/kg, while Spanish and Greek offerings remain notably cheaper by €3.65/kg and €3.35/kg, respectively.
This price gap may prompt buyers to adjust purchasing strategies, potentially shifting demand away from Italian supplies. If that occurs, Spain and Greece may see increased interest, stabilizing or even bolstering their olive oil markets. Such shifts highlight the dynamic nature of olive oil market trends and reinforce the importance of cost competitiveness among European producers.
Production Outlook for 2024/25 Season
Industry sources shared promising forecasts for the 2024/25 season. Greece is projected to harvest around 250,000 metric tonnes, a significant jump from last season’s 130,000 metric tonnes. Turkey may surpass 400,000 metric tonnes—near record-breaking levels—while Tunisia anticipates a yield of 280,000–290,000 metric tonnes. If realized, these figures would mark a return to more “normal” production volumes, historically associated with extra virgin olive oil prices between €3.50 and €4.00/kg—substantially lower than current rates.
Quality Factors and Future Price Movements
Although a large portion of the EU crop remains unharvested, early reports suggest encouraging quality. If quality remains strong as the harvest continues, it could exert further downward pressure on prices. Buyers remain cautious, hesitant to stockpile at existing price points as they consider the prospect of further declines. This tension between current premiums and potential future corrections is a key element of today’s olive oil market trends.
Conclusion
The evolving olive oil market trends underscore the importance of vigilance and flexibility. As production levels normalize, price discrepancies between countries highlight shifting demand patterns. The coming months will reveal whether European producers can leverage these conditions to balance supply, demand, and price competitiveness, ultimately shaping the trajectory of the global olive oil market.
Authored by: Kyle Holland
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