Weather and disease impact Florida orange crops and Brazil
As the 2024/25 market year (MY) for Floridia orange crops begins, the USDA has forecasted orange production to reach 15.0 million boxes, marking a 16% year-on-year (y-o-y)decline. Floridian citrus growers have long faced challenges from greening disease and extreme weather, including the recent impact of Hurricane Milton, which led to fruit drops due to heavy winds, though the full extent of the damage is still unknown. While growers of Florida orange crops have shown resilience in coping with these ongoing issues for over a decade, farmers are increasingly choosing to sell land or switch to other crops. According to the USDA, natural disasters and disease have cut Florida’s orange production by an estimated 92% since the 2003/04 MY.
In Brazil, the world largest citrus producer, Fundecitrus released an updated forecast on September 10 for the 2024/25 MY crop, revising the estimate for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt down by 7.1% from May’s forecast to 215.78 million boxes. This represents a 29.8% decline compared to last season’s 307.22 million boxes, the smallest crop since 1988/89 MY. The low production forecast in Brazil comes after a year of drought and the ongoing greening disease.
With historically low forecasts for both Florida and Brazil, the juice industry is facing another year of tight supplies and elevated prices. The Expana Benchmark price for Brazilian orange concentrate remains near record highs, currently at $6810/MT FOB Brazil, up 64.5% y-o-y as of September 30 and the New York futures prices for orange juice concentrate on the Expana platform is at 479 cents/lb up 24.3% y-o-y as of the October 11. Market players expect that the only potential downward pressure on these prices will be via reduced consumption, as rising costs may deter some consumers. However, retail prices are expected to increase, as the higher-cost 2024/25 MY crop reaches supermarket shelves, according to market sources.
European potato harvest update
In the Netherlands, approximately 25% of the potato 2024/25 market year crop remains to be harvested, with current progress ahead of last year at the same point in time. Harvest completion is anticipated in two weeks in the central and northern regions according to market sources, while wet conditions in the southern areas have caused delays according to market sources. The EU Commission forecasts the yield at 39 tonnes per hectare, representing a 7% decline y-o-y. The Dutch processing potato Expana Benchmark Price is currently at €140/mt, up 17% year-on-year (y-o-y).
Belgium’s potato crop has been the worst affected by heavy rainfall across Europe. Harvesting has been delayed, with roughly 50% of the national crop lifted so far. Improving weather conditions are expected to facilitate progress. The EU Commission estimates yield at 39.2 tonnes per hectare, marking a 10% reduction y-o-y. The Expana Benchmark Price for Fontane potatoes from Belgium stands at €125/mt, reflecting a 25% increase y-o-y.
Just under one-third of the German potato crop remains to be harvested, though progress has been slower compared to previous years due to wet weather. Weather forecasts of dry and sunny conditions ahead, should support a quicker harvest pace. According to the EU Commission’s September report, yields are estimated to be 1% higher than the five-year average but 3% lower y-o-y.
Harvest progress for the 2024/25 season in France has been strong. Market players report that the remaining potato area to be harvested is in the final third, and the harvest schedule is currently ahead of last year. The EU Commission has estimated yields in France at 42 tonnes per hectare, consistent with last year’s yields and 3% above the five-year average.
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