Wet weather dampens yields, but dry harvest boosts potato storage prospects for 2024/25
The forecast for the 2024 harvest is 20.7 million tonnes, which is 8.8% lower than the 2023 harvested production. This estimate was derived using preliminary NEPG (North-Western European Potato Growers) hectarage figures and August yield data from the EU Commission.
The NEPG anticipates a 4-6% year-over-year (y-o-y) increase in potato hectarage for 2024. However, unfavorable wet weather conditions and increased disease prevalence in the NEPG region have adversely affected potato crop growth and yields. In August, the EU Commission maintained its 2024 harvest yield forecast at 35.1 tonnes per hectare for the EU, which is 4.6% lower than the 2023 harvest yield of 36.8 tonnes per hectare and 1% below the 5-year average. Belgium and the Netherlands were the worst affected by wet weather during plantings earlier in the year, with yield declines of 11% and 6% respectively y-o-y. Meanwhile, yields in France are forecast down 4% y-o-y, and in Germany, they are expected to decrease by 2% y-o-y compared to the 2023 EU commission yield figures.
In Spain and Portugal, potato crops remain in average condition thanks to irrigation, despite the high temperatures.
Overall, market players report that they expect better potato availability throughout the 2024/25 market year (MY). Despite a lower production forecast, the generally dry harvest conditions have resulted in potatoes that are in good condition and will be storable throughout the MY, unlike the potatoes harvested under wet conditions in 2023.
Cashew prices soften slightly in August as demand weakens
The cashew kernel market softened in the second half of August, with the Expana Benchmark Prices for WW320 grade cashew kernels FOB Vietnam down 8 cents/lb from the start of the month (-2%), to $3.30/lb in the week of August 29, 2024.
Market participants interviewed by Expana noted quiet market conditions throughout the month, with the purchasing activity from the key Northern Hemisphere markets affected by the summer holiday break. As buyers in Europe and the US started returning to the market in the second half of the month, sellers and distributors noted an increasing number of inquiries, but transactions remained limited. Most interest is being reportedly for prompt sales. “Buyers are purchasing hand to mouth, nothing for forward positions because they think prices are still quite high. They mostly buy minimum quantities,” an Indian trader said in the last week of August.
Offers into Q1 2025 reportedly come with a premium of around 20-30 cents/lb but sellers have been reluctant to offer far out, some market players commented. “It has been quiet. Few people sell at lower prices for prompt shipments but are reluctant to offer forward over concerns about RCN prices next year,” an Asian broker noted.
Demand is normally muted during the Northern Hemisphere summer holiday season and activity usually picks up from September onwards when buyers look for last-minute cover ahead of Christmas or more often into 2025.
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