Rising hog slaughter and market supply
For the week of August 24th, the year-to-date total hog slaughter reached 80,302,100 head, marking a 1.2% increase compared to the same period last year, which was 79,296,000 head, according to the USDA’s Federally Inspected Hog Slaughter figures. The data indicates that 2024 has experienced higher weekly slaughter numbers, particularly at the beginning of the year due to winter weather disruptions, and from June to August, surpassing the levels of the past two years as well as the three-year average.
Some market participants believe that the increased supply needs to be directed toward exports, or a more significant reduction in sow numbers may be necessary to maintain pork prices and profitability. This is because domestic consumer interest historically tapers off after the summer months and continues to decline into the end of the year, following the trend observed in the Expana pork carcass cutout over the past three years.
Despite a 0.5% increase in total year-to-date sow slaughter compared to last year, the number of market-ready hogs is 0.26% higher. Additionally, the All Hogs and Pigs Inventory was 0.22% higher than reported in the last quarter’s USDA Hogs and Pigs Report. Although there have been cutbacks on the sow side due to the additional costs associated with widening sow pens for compliance with Proposition 12 and Question 3, this has not yet significantly impacted market-ready hog inventories this year.
China’s July 2024 beef imports bounce back from 13-month low; ebbing economy slashes yearly growth by 27 percent
China’s July 2024 beef imports rebounded by 3.2% month-on-month, reaching 215,322 metric tonnes (mt), following a 13-month low in June, according to the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China. This growth was driven by higher imports from major suppliers like Brazil, Australia, the United States, and Uruguay. In June, imports had dropped to 208,718 mt.
July’s increase reflects the broader trend in China’s meat imports, which rose 4.8% to 539,913 mt as market players stocked up in anticipation of winter demand for dishes like beef noodle soup, hot pots, and barbecues.
Despite this monthly gain, annual figures tell a different story. Yearly beef volumes fell 27.0% (79,473 mt), reflecting declining meat consumption. Consumers, facing economic jitters, are cutting back on premium beef, opting instead for more affordable proteins like chicken and pork.
Brazil led the market, supplying 45.0% of China’s beef imports in July, with volumes up 10.5% m-o-m to 96,789 mt, though down 34.6% y-o-y. Argentina and Uruguay followed, with both seeing declines in annual imports due to lower production and economic factors.
Australia saw a modest 5.6% m-o-m rise in imports to 18,120 mt, though annual volumes were down 16.9%. Market players are closely watching the potential impact of the 12.0% Most-Favored Nation (MFN) tariff, which will apply if Australian imports exceed 178,418 mt in 2024. YTD imports stand at 137,619 mt, leaving 40,799 mt before tariffs are triggered.
New Zealand’s imports fell 8.8% m-o-m to 12,167 mt, and 30.5% y-o-y, as competition from South American producers and lower seasonal production impacted volumes. The United States took a 5.3% market share, with imports up 3.3% m-o-m but down 22.0% y-o-y.
From January to July 2024, China imported a total of 1.65 million mt of beef, marking an 8.5% increase, largely due to higher Brazilian exports following a brief suspension in early 2023.
For further insights, please watch our most recent red meat webinar replay.
