Recent Russian wheat price news underscores mounting concerns for the 2025/26 season. With a significant portion of the winter wheat crop facing poor conditions and export projections tightening, both producers and global buyers are carefully watching market dynamics.
Winter Wheat Crop Under Pressure
- Alarming Crop Conditions
According to the Russian State Weather Agency, 37.2% of the winter wheat crop is currently in poor shape or hasn’t sprouted at all—an unprecedented figure compared to 4% last year and a five-year average of 7.3%. Only about a third (32%) of the crop is rated good-to-excellent, suggesting tighter supplies of high-quality grain.
- Regional Disparities
An Expana contact noted that southern areas are particularly depleted, especially for 12.5% protein wheat. Central regions have been “empty” since the start of the season, while Volga’s wheat quality remains uncertain. In Siberia, most surplus is feed-grade or worse. With the risk of winterkill on the rise, analysts have lowered their Russian wheat production estimates to 81–82 million mt for 2025/26 (down from 84–86 million mt).
Record Exports, But for How Long?
- Exports Reach High Levels
Despite production worries, Russian wheat exports have surged to 24.1 million mt so far, a record pace in many respects. However, a newly lowered export quota—set at 11 million mt versus 29 million mt last year—may soon rein in this momentum.
- Revised Forecasts
Current projections put Russia’s total 2024/25 wheat exports around 44 million mt, lower than the USDA’s 48 million mt forecast but closer to IKAR’s estimate of 42 million mt. One trader told Expana, “While exports had a strong start in December, we expect them to slow to 3.5–3.7 million mt this month, and possibly 2.5–3 million mt in January.”
Pricing and Ruble Devaluation
- Price Floor vs. Reality
The devaluation of the ruble has helped keep Russian wheat competitively priced. Recently, 12.5% milling wheat traded at around $224/mt FOB, dipping below the government’s official floor. While this week’s offers rose to $240/mt FOB, demand is reportedly strongest at lower price levels—an unsustainable situation for many exporters.
- Farmer Resistance & Export Taxes
Farmers are pushing back against further price drops, anticipating higher export taxes ahead. One Expana source commented, “I don’t think prices will be lower for the second half of January, even though some people are expecting a reduction in export taxes during that time.”
What It Means for Global Buyers and Producers
With Russian wheat price news revealing both supply and export pressures, stakeholders worldwide must navigate a volatile market. Lower production estimates suggest potential tightening of high-quality wheat availability, while shifting export policies could alter global trade flows. For buyers, locking in forward contracts or diversifying supply sources may become crucial strategies to manage risk. Producers, meanwhile, may face a balancing act between domestic price floors, the ruble’s value, and export quotas.
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Stay ahead of Russian wheat price news by leveraging our expert analysis and up-to-date market data, so you can mitigate risk and capitalize on emerging opportunities in this ever-shifting landscape.
