According to the USDA, global 2024/25 sugar production is projected to increase 1.4% y-o-y to a record 186.02 million metric tons, while ending stocks would fall 4.7% from a year prior totaling 38.33 million metric tons, a 13-year low. In the bi-annual Sugar: World Markets and Trade report, the USDA stated that lower production in Brazil is expected to more than offset higher production in Thailand, India, China, and Mexico. Global consumption is anticipated to rise to a new record with growth in markets including India and Pakistan.
Meanwhile, Guatemala was cited as a top five exporter despite an anticipated 2% drop in sugar exports for 2024/25, totaling 1.4 million metric tons because of reductions in production due to El Niño. Guatemala’s national sugar policy is also a factor, mandating that all domestic consumption demands are met before exporting products. In 2024/25 the forecast for sugar production is down 4% to 2.4 million metric tons based on lower sugar cane yields caused by dry weather from May to July despite higher harvested area. Brazil remains the top global exporter of sugar.
In the US, production was forecasted to increase marginally to 8.4 million tons. Imports are estimated to decline based on projected quota programs set at minimal levels consistent with World Trade Organization and free-trade agreement obligations. Consumption is unchanged y-o-y while stocks were reduced due to lower imports.
Sources tell Expana that supply and demand are well-balanced in the US, with a lot of the panic buying that came with the COVID-19 pandemic beginning to fade away. Supply is typically tight during the summer months given the market seasonality, but participants state that demand is weaker y-o-y. Sugar prices have become more negotiable, and buyers are confident in their positions. This sentiment may shift as we head into the fall and preparations for the holiday season begin.
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