The retail rundown: Thanksgiving turkey takes the spotlight
By: Courtney Shum
Thanksgiving is just around the corner, and with it comes the annual scramble for the perfect Thanksgiving turkey to grace the holiday table. Fresh whole turkeys are taking center stage this year, but at a slightly higher price point than in years past. According to Circana data, fresh whole Thanksgiving turkeys were featured at an average discounted price of $1.48 per pound last week, up from $1.27 per pound during the same period last year.
The price of popularity
For the most sought-after turkey sizes—ranging from 10–15 and 16–24 pounds—prices averaged $1.34 per pound, compared to just $1.00–$1.10 per pound last year. These prices reflect pre-promotion rates and don’t include additional discounts or enticing free turkey offers often used to draw in holiday shoppers.
Whole turkeys are traditionally used as “loss leaders” by retailers, attracting customers who then stock up on sides, desserts, and other staples. However, a convergence of challenges has made deep discounts less likely this year.
Supply struggles
Turkey harvest levels have hit record lows this year, leading to tighter inventories. Disease complications, including outbreaks of bird flu and metapneumovirus, have significantly impacted production, reducing the number of eggs set and limiting supply. Compounding the issue, frozen whole turkey stocks in cold storage during the first quarter—when contracts for Thanksgiving are typically negotiated—were down about 10% year-over-year (YOY).
Despite these constraints, underwhelming demand has kept wholesale turkey prices stagnant at multi-year lows. For instance, Expana’s 16–20-pound tom turkey quotation sits at $1.07 per pound, 18 cents lower than last year and well below the record highs of 2022.
Holiday price trends
Turkey isn’t the only protein on the menu this holiday season. While wholesale ham prices have dropped from near-record levels seen in 2022, they’ve still traded above their five-year average. Last week, fresh boneless smoked ham was priced at $5.38 per pound, up from $5.27 in 2023. Fresh half-spiral smoked hams also increased to $3.08 per pound, compared to $2.87 last year.
Encouragingly, consumers may find some overall relief at the checkout counter. The Expana Thanksgiving Dinner Index 2024 shows a 3.3% decline in the total cost of a Thanksgiving meal compared to last year, with the Main Meal Index down by an even steeper 6.6% YOY.
A feast of affordable options
The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) has estimated the cost of a 16-pound turkey this year at $25.67, a 6% decrease from 2023. A Thanksgiving feast for ten is projected to cost $58.08, down 5% from last year but still 19% higher than five years ago. Adjusted for inflation, this year’s Thanksgiving dinner ranks among the most affordable in the 39-year history of the AFBF survey—excluding the pandemic-influenced year of 2020.
Beyond the turkey
While food inflation has eased, rising costs in housing, transportation, and other expenses continue to pressure consumers. Processed items like dinner rolls and cubed stuffing are expected to be pricier this year due to labor shortages and inflation in nonfood sectors.
Promotions are heating up as we approach Thanksgiving, with turkey accounting for 11.9% of all protein advertisements this week, triple last week’s figure. Frozen whole turkeys make up half of these ads. Interestingly, other proteins are also vying for attention: seafood leads at 27.3%, followed by pork (22.9%), beef (21.5%), and chicken (13%).
Wrapping up
With supply constraints, rising production costs, and changing consumer habits shaping the turkey market, shoppers may need to strategize more than ever this year. Whether it’s a fresh turkey centerpiece or a variety of proteins to satisfy diverse tastes, there’s something for everyone at the holiday table.
For those looking for the latest insights into retail promotions and protein trends, the COMTELL dashboard offers a comprehensive breakdown of weekly feature activity.
Happy Thanksgiving!
For further insights, please watch our most recent meat webinar replay.
