European apple juice concentrate hits record highs on supply concerns
The Expana Benchmark Prices for medium-acidity apple juice concentrate (Expana Code: FJ05) hit record highs at the end of August on the back of concerns over a shortfall of processing apples. The assessment was made at €2,500/mt on Aug. 31, up €250/mt on the month and an increase of 59% y-o-y (year-on-year).
The rise comes as industry is expecting a shortfall in raw materials for processing from both Eastern Europe and Turkey. The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) estimated a 11.3% y-o-y decline in European apple production in its 2024/25 production forecast, released on Aug. 8. This would place EU apple production for the 2024/25 season at 10.2 million tonnes, the lowest level since the 2017/18.
The processing market is expected to be hit the hardest by these declines with major processing apple growing countries in Central and Eastern Europe expecting significant declines in yield due to adverse conditions during the growing season. Production out of Poland, Europe’s largest apple producer and a major processor, is forecast to fall to 3.2 million tonnes a drop on 19.6% y-o-y and a reduction of 25.0% against the three-season average. For further information on the WAPA forecast click here.
At the same time production is expected to decline out of Turkey, a major supplier of concentrate into Europe. Market sources are expecting a decline in Turkish production of c.35% y-o-y ahead of the new season with is expected to begin in the second week of September. The decline has been put down to a combination of drought and several consecutive years of strong yields which have “tired out the trees” according to one market player.
For buyers looking for alternative origins Chinese apple juice prices remain competitive with the Expana Benchmark Prices for low acidity apple juice FOB China assessed at $1,600/mt (€1446.56/mt) at the end of August. However, elevated sea freight costs out of the region have reduced their advantage and market players expect demand for Turkish apple juice to remain robust.
Looking longer term market participants are expecting the 2024/25 season to be characterized by tight supplies of raw material and elevated prices for apple juice concentrate.
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