Key sultana growing areas of the Manisa region, western Turkey, were hit by frosts last week, causing severe damage to grapevines, according to industry sources.
At the time of the frost, grapevines were transitioning into the flowering stage, having developed inflorescence from which the fruit later forms. Most damage occurred on the night of April 9/10. Compared with a previous frost event in the third week of March, when leaves had just started sprouting on vines, the chances of crop recovery from last week’s frost are less likely. It is believed that the frost was relatively widespread, with crop damage reported across large parts of the valley north-east of Manisa, including the districts of Saruhanli, Turgutlu, Salihli and Alaşehir. Frost damage in those areas could reach anywhere between 10-80%, according to industry opinions.
“The frost is really bad, it has not happened in only one or two places, but there are so many areas affected, and also for other crops across Turkey, apricots, apples, hazelnuts,” a Turkish processor commented and continued, “this frost came at a very bad time. If it was in March, vineyards could still recover, but we are now in mid-April, it is too late. Before, we were talking about a huge crop but not anymore.”
“Vineyards have turned from green to black and brown, burnt by the frost. We think damage in Saruhanli could be between 85-90%. It varies in other regions. It is the second frost damage this year. After the first one, vines could recover, but we are unsure now. There might be some recovery, but we do not know if it is going to be fruit or leaves.” another processor noted.
According to Expana weather analysis, temperatures in an area stretching from Manisa north to Saruhanli and Kapakli, and east towards Turgutlu and Salihli fell below 0°C during the late hours of April 9 and in the early morning of April 10. On the morning of April 10, there were around six hours where temperatures dropped below 0°C, averaging around -0.6°C between 2am and 7am. Between 5am and 7am was the coldest, with temperatures dropping as low as -1.6°C.
Turkey / April 2025; week 2 /minimum temperature (% change)
Source: Mintec Analytics by Expana
“Even if the damage is not as bad as Turkey predicts, the frost has taken out at least 60,000-70,000 tonnes from the crop,” a UK trader said. “The damage has been widespread but not to the same extent everywhere. Crop surveys will start next week, which will provide more clarity. We hope there is chance that some of these vines can recover,” another UK trader noted.
Following the frost event, sellers in Turkey have reportedly withdrawn from the sultana market. “We had to refuse an offer on Thursday morning we made earlier, and we have been out of the market since then. We are trying to collect as much data as we can on the frost damage,” a seller said. “Lot of buyers had been waiting to come into the market, but we have now seen plenty of inquiries since the frost hit vineyards,” another seller added.
Owing to low sultana exports in the current campaign, due to the high market prices, the chances of Turkey carrying over some stock into 2025/26 increased as the season progresses. However, following the recent frost, it is now unlikely that these stocks could be sold cheaply. “Raw material prices were coming down weeks before the frost, but growers are now in a very powerful position,” a packer noted. Elsewhere in Turkey, the situation in Malatya, the main apricot production area, is reportedly even more concerning, with large damages reported on apricot orchards following heavy frost and snow there.
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Authored by:
Jara Zicha
Expana
[email protected]
Image source: Mehemmed – stock.adobe.com
